USA HRC Spot Prices at $1,030-$1,040; April Scrap Seen Sideways
A tight spot market for hot-rolled coil in the US was keeping transaction prices slightly above $1,030 per ton for average sized orders, marketplace participants told WSD early this week. “The market remains strong and imports are not an imminent threat,” a steel distributor said.
Meanwhile, most market sources were anticipating ferrous scrap prices for April to be sideways, but with mill outages and maintenance about to take hold, a few said some grades may move lower by the end of the buying period, which is expected later this week. “Prime scrap should hold steady this month,” one scrap seller said.
Nucor on Monday increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC to $1,040 (and up to $1,090 for CSI on the West Coast). “Nucor moved its price $5 higher this week after two weeks of $10 increases,” noted a Midwest service center buyer. “Activity overall is still good, and it seems Nucor and other mills are not being overly aggressive with their pricing,” he added.
In fact, it’s been two years this week that Nucor first introduced its weekly-announced CSP for HRC. “Unlike traditional book or list prices from mills, this (Nucor CSP) has become a fairly realistic and dependable indicator of the spot market for hot-rolled (coil).”
When launched on April 8, 2024, Nucor’s CSP was $830 per ton.
Volumes have been limited recently to fewer than 50 lots in HRC futures trading on the CME, but most recent settlements have been lofty at $1,051 for April, $1,083 for May and $1,080 for June.
WSD Take:
Hot-rolled coil prices in the United States have regained notable momentum, with prices surging to $1,040 per ton in recent weeks.
This $25–30/ton increase reflects global inflationary trends. On the cost side, rising electricity and natural gas prices are pressuring mill economics, while logistics costs have surged — despite world export prices remaining low, freight rates have exploded since the onset of the Iranian conflict.
Demand remains the critical X factor. Automotive consumption is weak and vulnerable to further erosion from rising inflation, a softening labor market, and escalating tariffs. Construction activity may continue to muddle along as interest rate policy is complicated by the Fed’s inflation target. Energy could offer some upside, though primarily through trade policy closing loopholes on imported pipe and tube — not from an actual increase in sector demand.
The spread between U.S. and world pricing remains potent, opening the door to increased imports in Q2. However, higher global production and logistics costs could keep prices sticky, limiting the pace of any import rebound.
Downside risk for pricing could become more evident in the second half of the year if economic activity fails to recover, imports continue to rise through Q3, and new domestic supply continues to come online.