USA HRC Spot Prices Continue Their Ascent, As Does Plate

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Some sellers told WSD Tuesday that the spot price for small tonnages of hot-rolled coil (HRC) are on the verge of $1,000 per ton. “We’re seeing routine sales of $980-$990, and even a bit higher for smaller orders,” a mill rep told WSD.

Nucor, meanwhile, raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC to $980 per ton—the fifth weekly boost since January 12th. CSI’s offers on the west coast are already above the $1,000-ton mark, lifted this week to $1,030 per ton.

HRC lead times are reported at six to eight weeks.

In early trading of HRC futures on the CME, every contract through June was up between $2-$7, all north of $980 per ton. The most active month was March at a volume of 92 lots.

Elsewhere, spot prices remain buoyant for carbon plate. Market participants report price increases were announced late last week by Nucor (up $50) and by SSAB early this week (up $60). Nucor also told customers its order book for April was open. And SSAB noted that its price increase would apply to non-contract orders confirmed to ship by March 29 or later.

Like HRC, the market for plate has been strong and mills have been largely successful in securing two previous price increases since Q4 2025, according to a steel distributor. “It’s likely these latest increases will be accepted also because the plate market is pretty tight,” the distributor said. He added that the price of base grade carbon cut-to-length plate was about $1,060-$1,080/ton just before the latest hikes.

Contributing to the plate market tightness is a decline in imports through November. Based on the latest final US Census Bureau data, cut-to-length plate imports were down 26% and coiled plate imports down 15% versus 2024 through 11 months.

WSD Take:
WSD reiterates its thesis that pricing is likely to reach its peak in the coming weeks.

In our opinion, the current HRC price surge has been supported by a tight supply environment, with sheet imports running at a near-record low annualized rate of ~5.1 million tons and the impact of expansive maintenance outages in October and November of last year; However, WSD believes that import levels are unsustainable given the wide spread between US and global pricing, including sub-$500 per ton HRC available internationally on a pre-tariff basis.

We expect import volumes to begin rising in early Q2, potentially increasing to a 6.5–7.0-million-ton annualized rate by late Q2, which would introduce roughly 2 million additional tons (annualized) of sheet supply into the US market and place downward pressure on prices. This increase would still keep import volumes below pre-tariff levels.

With near-term demand conditions remaining soft, WSD sees risk of a $50–$70 per ton price correction in the coming months, in part driven by marketplace psychology as buyers “sit on their hands” in anticipation of rising imports.

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