USA HRC Spot Prices Edge Higher, Rebar Increases Sticking
Market participants on both the buy- and sell-sides tell WSD early this week that hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot prices have “easily” breached the $1,070 per ton threshold in the Midwest and southern US markets. “Typical-size orders of a couple hundred tons are now fetching $1,075 per ton,” a steel distributor in the heartland said.
Nucor again raised its weekly Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC on Monday—this time by $10 to $1,080 per ton. The steel producer has now hiked its offers for spot HRC 17 straight weeks. Beginning on January 20th Nucor has increased its CSP by $5 nine times, seven times by $10, and once by $15. Elsewhere, its offers out of CSI on the west coast have also steadily increased over that same span, reaching $1,130 per ton this week.
In fact, it’s probably no coincidence that during that same period (the past four months) the ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index has shown expanded manufacturing activity — the longest growth streak since 2022. “Demand is strong,” said a mill sales rep. Lead times are reported at around eight weeks.
Meanwhile, the forward curve for HRC futures on the CME continues to point toward sustained market confidence. Volumes are strongest for the June (847 lots) and July (669 lots) contracts, which settled Monday at $1,099/ton and $1,135/ton, respectively.
WSD Take:
Hot-rolled coil prices in the United States have regained notable momentum, with prices surging to $1,060 per ton in recent weeks.
This steady increase in prices reflects global inflationary trends. On the cost side, rising electricity and natural gas prices are pressuring mill economics, while logistics costs have surged — despite world export prices remaining low in comparison, freight rates have exploded since the onset of the Iranian conflict.
Demand remains the critical factor. Automotive consumption is soft and vulnerable to further erosion from rising inflation, a softening labor market, and escalating tariffs. Construction activity, outside of data center driven growth, may continue to muddle along as interest rate policy is complicated by the Fed’s inflation target.
Domestic supply is tight. HSM utilization is sustained at the highest levels since the post-COVID recovery and is arguably understated given the heavy maintenance schedule, including the Gary blast-furnace reline. Sheet imports are running near 5.5 Mt annualized, well below the 9.5-10 Mt normalized range; therefore, supply remains constrained even with Big River-II +3 Mt and Granite City’s +1.5 MT.
Prices will likely continue to escalate in the coming weeks. Downside risk for pricing could become more evident in the second half of the year if economic activity fails to recover, imports continue to rise (even marginally), and new domestic supply continues to come online.