USA: August 12, 2025: USA HRC Spot Pricing Continues to Slip; Scrap Settles Sideways
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The summer doldrums are continuing well into August for the hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel and ferrous scrap markets in the USA. “With the tariffs these should be booming, exciting times for domestic steel mills,” a trader told WSD Monday, adding, “but the market has been uneventful since April, May.”
Ferrous scrap pricing in the US for August settled at the same level as July for most grades and across most regions. “We’ve had sideways scrap pricing since May,” a scrap dealer said, adding, “and I’d not be surprised if it’s largely unchanged next month or into the fourth quarter.”
Prime scrap is reported steady at about $430/gross ton in most regions.
Meanwhile, HRC spot pricing continues to weaken. Nucor on Monday lowered its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC to $875 per ton, down $15 from the week before. That represents the lowest level since May 26/June 2 when Nucor’s CSP was $870/nt.
“We are not carrying much inventory, maybe 50 days, but we’re in no hurry to buy,” a Midwest service center buyer told WSD. “Even though we are hearing of deals for large orders down around $840 per ton.”
Lead times are reported by most market participants at three to four weeks. And several buyers canvassed by WSD said the current spot price range for an average size order is $850-$860 per ton. Futures HRC price settlements on the CME are also trending lower.
WSD Take: In the immediate term, limited buying activity amid generally weak demand conditions could drive spot pricing down an additional $20-$40 per ton. WSD believes that steel import tariffs will remain mostly intact for the remainder of 2025, which would effectively keep the HRC spot price floor above $800 per ton.
Mill lead times remain in “next day delivery” territory as steel buyers work off inventory that was accumulated during the first half of the year. Furthermore, WSD is forecasting that sheet imports are unlikely to fall below 7.5 million tons on an annualized basis (pending a complete collapse of real domestic demand). Weak global export market conditions, particularly in Asia, are likely to sustain HRC export prices below $500 per ton for the remainder of the year, which would sustain the availability of sub-$800 per ton HRC delivered to U.S. ports.
Some increased certainty regarding U.S. trade policy could provide manufacturers with the confidence to adjust supply chains and improve industrial output; however, drama between the Federal Reserve and the White House could keep investment on the sideline in anticipation of imminent lower interest rates. WSD is not bullish that economic growth during the second half of the year will be robust. Please see our expanded economic outlook section where we lay out our view of likely slow, but not negative growth, for the remainder of the year.
Nevertheless, WSD believes supply-demand conditions could tighten slightly in the coming months. A combination of diminished inventories, moderate improvement in demand conditions, and perhaps a more robust than normal mill maintenance outage schedule (recall, many mills skipped Spring outages amidst a post-tariff run up in mill utilization), could result in a $40-$70 per ton recovery to $875 per ton by October.
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