July 15, 2025

US-made HRC Bumping Along at About $900/ton

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Hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel purchases in recent days have been steady enough to stabilize the average transaction spot price at $900 per ton, based on buyer and seller reports to WSD. The lowest domestic spot price cited was $870/ton for a typical order volume, and the highest was $920/ton, but most feedback put the current spot-price range at $880-$910/ton.

A steel trader reported imported HRC on the ground at the Port of Houston currently being offered at about $850 per ton. “But activity remains slow, with customers only inquiring about specific sizes they urgently need,” he said.

Nucor, on Monday, maintained its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC at $910/ton for a third consecutive week. Cleveland-Cliffs, which publishes a monthly HRC market price and opened its July order book on June 16 at $950/ton, has yet to update its spot price (as of midday July 15).

There has been no rush by buyers to replenish inventory in any major measure. Several service centers and steel distributors continue to tell WSD that they are just picking their spots to fill in. Most peg lead times at three to five weeks. Demand is generally described as just firm and far from robust.

“End-user business is pretty good in many industries,” a mill sales rep told WSD Tuesday, “the exceptions being construction and heavy equipment.”  

He added: “I think the buyers are simply confused and do not want to do much of anything right now.”  The rep reported selling considerable tonnage in the past week at $920/ton.

Another mill rep who had previously bemoaned the contraction of galvanized sheet pricing relative to HRC, said coated prices are starting to recover “perhaps because they fell so much.” Another factor might be that an end to the corrosion-resistant steel trade case is approaching. 

The International Trade Commission’s (ITC) final determinations are scheduled for August 1, but only if there is a final affirmative determination by the Commerce Department. On February 4, 2025, the Commerce announced the affirmative preliminary determinations in the countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of corrosion-resistant steel products (CORE) from Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (Vietnam). Commerce is concurrently conducting AD investigations on CORE from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, the Republic of Türkiye (Türkiye), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Vietnam.

The petitioners (filed September 5, 2024) for the AD/CVD petitions on Australia, Brazil, the Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, Türkiye, the UAE, and Vietnam are: Steel Dynamics, Inc.; Nucor Corporation; United States Steel; United Steel, Paper and Forestry, Rubber, Manufacturing, Energy, Allied Industrial and Service Workers International Union, AFL-CIO, CLC (USW); and Wheeling-Nippon Steel, Inc. The petitioners for the AD/CVD petitions on Canada are Steel Dynamics, Inc. and Nucor Corporation. The petitioners for the AD/CVD petitions on Mexico are Steel Dynamics, Inc.; United States Steel Corporation; the USW; and Wheeling-Nippon Steel, Inc.

WSD Take: Demand remains soft, mill lead times remain short, and tariff clarity on both finished products and primary steel products remain uncertain. 

At the moment it appears as the U.S. policy makers are buckling down on tariffs, at least in the immediate term. As such, WSD expects that prices will remain in a $870-$900 per ton range in the coming weeks. A key wild card factor is how Brazilian pig iron prices will be impacted by potential tariffs on Brazilian goods that are scheduled to begin on August 1. If these tariffs go into effect, there could be an immediate knock-on effect to domestic scrap prices, pushing EAF steelmaking cost up and causing steelmakers to attempt a further price increase to maintain current margin levels. 

This may prove difficult, however, with metal margins already at +$450 per ton and limited demand upside in the immediate term. Perhaps the greatest chance for upward pricing momentum will come following Labor Day depending on the extent of mill capacity cutbacks during Fall maintenance season.