July 2, 2025

USA HRC Spot Prices Edge Above $900/ton

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Despite soft demand, USA hot-rolled coil spot prices edged slightly above $900 per ton early this week, based on feedback from market participants, but they might be mired around that level for a while. Nucor increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC by $10 to $910/ton on Monday.

“I don’t think we’ll see any real demand uplift until the third quarter, maybe fourth,” a mill sales rep told WSD Tuesday. “There is domestic buying activity, but it’s slow. No major inventory replenishment. Also, there was an import surge in May, and even with 50% tariffs, the country still needs to import steel.”

Lead times have not extended, said the mill rep, and are generally stuck at three to four weeks.

“Automotive is slow, housing is slow; non-res is decent, and energy isn’t terrible,” said a steel distributor. “There’s just not enough demand from certain sectors for a big price surge.”

July’s scrap buying week should extend well into next week because of the US July 4 Holiday, but early signs are for sideways pricing of most grades in key regions. Prime scrap might see a lift because of the tariff on offshore pig iron, a scrap seller told WSD.

WSD Take: Little has changed during the holiday week, as far as WSD can tell. Demand remains soft, mill lead times remain short, and tariff clarity on both finished products and primary steel products remain uncertain. At the time of publication, it was announced that the U.S. had reached a trade deal with Vietnam, placing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and an additional 20% tariff on trans-shipped items. It is not clear at the time of publication whether 50% steel tariffs had been negotiated down to a 20% rate or not. 

If tariffs remain intact, World Steel Dynamics views the current $875–$900 range as a stable floor price. However, a significant wild card remains: the status of potential bilateral trade deals. There are early indications that agreements with Mexico and Canada may be imminent. It does not seem unlikely that discussions with Japan, South Korea, and the European Union would be soon to follow. These five regions together account for nearly 80% of total U.S. steel imports. If exemptions or deals are ultimately secured, they could introduce downward pressure on domestic pricing. For now, the market is stuck in a wait-and-see mode, with downside risk emerging as negotiations evolve.