Worldsteel Forecasts 1.7% Steel Demand Growth in US This Year
Steel demand in the United States is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Demand Outlook (SRO), released April 14th. Worldsteel also see US demand for steel growing 2.0% in 2027. “This expansion is expected to be supported by strong, technology-driven and policy-backed private sector investment, along with continued public infrastructure spending,” Worldsteel noted.
Overall, Worldsteel forecasts that global demand will grow by 0.3% in 2026 to reach 1,724 million metric tons, followed by an accelerated growth of 2.2% in 2027 to reach 1,762 million mt. The group acknowledges, however, that the Middle East conflict is a wild card.
“Our latest forecasts validate the trajectory established in our October 2025 SRO, confirming that global steel demand is bottoming out over the 2025-2026 period,” Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, chief economist, UNESID, and chair of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, said in a statement. “This follows a protracted and challenging phase of global structural adjustments that has suppressed demand since 2022,” he added.
Hidalgo Calcerrada explained that the global steel industry is now transitioning to a path of modest growth in 2026, with a more pronounced acceleration projected for 2027. “This broader recovery is being driven by distinct shifts in regional dynamics,” he said. “In China the rate of demand contraction is finally decelerating in 2026, while demand growth across key developing markets, most notably India, remains vibrant.”
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to result in a sharp drop in that region’s steel demand for 2026, which was otherwise positioned for strong growth.
“Critically, we anticipate a meaningful turnaround in the developed world as a whole,” Hidalgo Calcerrada said. “After a protracted period of decline, we expect to see all major developed economies, including the European Union, the US, Canada, Japan, and Korea, posting positive growth in 2027.”
He added: “Consequently, global steel demand excluding China is forecast to accelerate to a growth rate of 4.0% in 2027—a level that has rarely been seen in recent times. While this outlook reflects data available as of mid-March 2026, the escalating conflict in the Middle East presents a significant stress test.”
The chief economist noted that the US, China and India “appear largely insulated from direct spillovers. Furthermore, despite its high exposure, the EU has bolstered its systemic energy flexibility since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis. The sharp divergence between the gas price peak in 2022 and current price levels illustrates a much more contained impact thus far.”
Hidalgo Calcerrada cautioned: “Nevertheless, should hostilities persist beyond the second quarter, material downward revisions will be necessary, particularly for regions with high structural energy sensitivity.”